How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Prospective arrhythmia surveillance after a COVID-19 diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac arrhythmias have been observed among patients hospitalised with acute COVID-19 infection, and palpitations remain a common symptom among the much larger outpatient population of COVID-19 survivors in the convalescent stage of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To determine arrhythmia prevalence among outpatients after a COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: Adults with a positive COVID-19 test and without a history of arrhythmia were prospectively evaluated with 14-day ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring. Participants were instructed to trigger the monitor for palpitations. RESULTS: A total of 51 individuals (mean age 42±11 years, 65% women) underwent monitoring at a median 75 (IQR 34-126) days after a positive COVID-19 test. Median monitoring duration was 13.2 (IQR 10.5-13.8) days. No participant demonstrated atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, sustained supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), sustained ventricular tachycardia or infranodal atrioventricular block. Nearly all participants (96%) had an ectopic burden of <1%; one participant had a 2.8% supraventricular ectopic burden and one had a 15.4% ventricular ectopic burden. While 47 (92%) participants triggered their monitor for palpitation symptoms, 78% of these triggers were for either sinus rhythm or sinus tachycardia. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence of malignant or sustained arrhythmias in outpatients after a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. While palpitations were common, symptoms frequently corresponded to sinus rhythm/sinus tachycardia or non-malignant arrhythmias such as isolated ectopy or non-sustained SVT. While these findings cannot exclude the possibility of serious arrhythmias in select individuals, they do not support a strong or widespread proarrhythmic effect of COVID-19 infection after resolution of acute illness.

Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one's own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one's personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020. SETTING: The COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner. PARTICIPANTS: All adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing. RESULTS: 28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.

Predictors of incident viral symptoms ascertained in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of universal testing, effective therapies, or vaccines, identifying risk factors for viral infection, particularly readily modifiable exposures and behaviors, is required to identify effective strategies against viral infection and transmission. METHODS: We conducted a world-wide mobile application-based prospective cohort study available to English speaking adults with a smartphone. We collected self-reported characteristics, exposures, and behaviors, as well as smartphone-based geolocation data. Our main outcome was incident symptoms of viral infection, defined as fevers and chills plus one other symptom previously shown to occur with SARS-CoV-2 infection, determined by daily surveys. FINDINGS: Among 14, 335 participants residing in all 50 US states and 93 different countries followed for a median 21 days (IQR 10-26 days), 424 (3%) developed incident viral symptoms. In pooled multivariable logistic regression models, female biological sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% CI 1.39-2.20, p<0.001), anemia (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.81, p = 0.001), hypertension (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.08-1.68, p = 0.007), cigarette smoking in the last 30 days (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.35-2.55, p<0.001), any viral symptoms among household members 6-12 days prior (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.67-2.55, p<0.001), and the maximum number of individuals the participant interacted with within 6 feet in the past 6-12 days (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25, p<0.001) were each associated with a higher risk of developing viral symptoms. Conversely, a higher subjective social status (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, p<0.001), at least weekly exercise (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.70, p<0.001), and sanitizing one's phone (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99, p = 0.037) were each associated with a lower risk of developing viral symptoms. INTERPRETATION: While several immutable characteristics were associated with the risk of developing viral symptoms, multiple immediately modifiable exposures and habits that influence risk were also observed, potentially identifying readily accessible strategies to mitigate risk in the COVID-19 era.